A volatile Thursday night ahead? The Japanese Jen, Bank of Japan, and risk assets under pressure.

This coming Thursday night / early Friday could turn into one of the most important macro moments of the month not only for FX traders, but also for crypto investors. The focus is on the Japanese yen (JPY), the USD/JPY pair, and potential policy signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

While this may sound like a traditional FX story, the consequences could spread much wider equities, crypto, and other risk assets may feel the impact very quickly.

🗓️ What’s happening around Thursday night?

📌 Markets are preparing for an upcoming Bank of Japan policy meeting, with the official interest-rate decision scheduled for Friday morning (Japan time).

👉 So why all the talk about Thursday night?

markets often start pricing in expectations earlier, during European and US trading hours

traders watch closely for comments, leaks, or changes in tone from BoJ officials

key US macro data (such as CPI inflation) are typically released Thursday night European time, influencing expectations for the Fed

This combination often leads to sharp and fast market moves.

📊 Why USD/JPY matters right now

For many years, the setup was straightforward:

🇯🇵 Japan: near-zero interest rates

🇺🇸 United States: much higher interest rates

Result: 👉 Investors borrowed cheap yen and bought dollars (the classic carry trade)

👉 The yen weakened steadily and USD/JPY climbed for years

What has changed now?

🔴 Japan has begun seriously fighting inflation

🔴 The Bank of Japan ended its zero-rate era

🔴 Markets fear:

further rate hikes

or a clear signal that cheap yen liquidity is coming to an end

At the same time:

🔵 The Federal Reserve is turning more dovish

🔵 The US is getting closer to rate cuts

➡️ The rate differential between the US and Japan is shrinking

➡️ Holding USD is becoming less attractive

💡 What could happen next?

🔹 Scenario 1: Hawkish Bank of Japan

If the BoJ:

raises rates

or strongly signals further tightening

💥 The yen could strengthen rapidly

📉 USD/JPY may fall sharply (fewer yen per dollar)

🔹 Scenario 2: Cautious or dovish BoJ

If the BoJ:

avoids hiking

or delivers a very cautious message

📈 Markets may see this as yen weakness

📈 USD/JPY could move higher again

🔹 Scenario 3: US data accelerates the move

US macro releases (inflation, labor data) on Thursday night could:

come in weaker → USD weakens → USD/JPY drops

surprise to the upside → USD holds up → USD/JPY rises

📈 What investors are watching

✔️ USD/JPY levels (currently around 154–155)

✔️ Key technical support and resistance zones

✔️ BoJ’s communication, often more important than the decision itself

✔️ US macro data and their impact on Fed expectations

🧠 Why markets are nervous

The fear isn’t just about policy it’s about positioning.

📌 A massive number of traders are still:

positioned for a weak yen

running leveraged carry trades

👉 If the yen starts strengthening:

positions get unwound simultaneously

leading to a panic unwind

Potential result:

📉 −3% to −5% moves in USD/JPY within days

📉 pressure on equities

📉 pressure on crypto and other risk assets

💹 Why this matters for crypto markets

The yen has historically been a safe-haven currency.

When it strengthens:

capital flows out of risk assets

equities weaken

crypto often follows

👉 A rapidly strengthening yen is often

a warning signal for Bitcoin and altcoins

🧾 TL;DR

The yen was cheap for years → everyone sold it

The Bank of Japan may now change the narrative

Thursday night = high risk of volatility

Stronger yen = headwinds for risk assets, including crypto

📌 If you trade crypto, ignoring USD/JPY this week could be costly.

Upcoming events:

1. Next Block Expo - Web3 Summit

   24 - 25 March 2026 in Warsaw, Poland

   With coupon code: imlovingcrypto

   You will get 20% discount

   To buy tickets follow the link below:

   https://www.nextblockexpo.com

2. TEAMZ Summit Web3 /AI

   7 - 8 April in Tokyo, Japan

   To buy tickets follow the link below:

   https://www.teamz.co.jp